J.P. Morgan Projects U.S. Humanoid Robot Output of Up to 400,000
What happened
On November 12, 2026, J.P. Morgan released a forecast projecting that U.S. production of humanoid robots will reach between 300,000 and 400,000 units by 2030, and about 1.5 million units by 2035. The report attributes this anticipated growth to labor shortages, cost competitiveness with human workers, and increased production capacity. Current deployment is limited by supply constraints in hardware, AI development, and manufacturing capacity. The report also notes that potential U.S. policy actions could further encourage domestic robot manufacturing.
Key details
- J.P. Morgan estimates annual savings of about $100,000 per customer if robots are used across multiple shifts.
- Most U.S. humanoid robot makers, except Tesla, are targeting 10,000–30,000 units of annual production.
- The market for key robot components like actuators and vision systems could reach $30 billion by 2035.
- Highlighted U.S. robot makers include Tesla (Optimus), Agility Robotics (Digit), Boston Dynamics (Atlas), Figure AI (Figure), and Apptronik (Apollo).
- Potential U.S. tariffs or policy measures may be introduced due to national security concerns over imported robotics.
Why it matters
Manufacturers, logistics firms, and warehousing companies in the U.S. could see increased access to humanoid robots as production scales up, offering a potential reduction in labor costs and new automation options. Component suppliers stand to benefit from a growing market for robot parts, while robot makers face the challenge of overcoming supply bottlenecks to meet demand. U.S. policy decisions could affect where robots and their components are produced, influencing costs and supply chains for American businesses.